2014 marks the centennial of the commence- ment of World War I. One connection between today and that seemingly long-ago war is how e make choices when the future seems obvious only in retrospect, in what former U.S. Secretary of State George P. Shultz refers to as a world “awash in change.” Max Hastings, in Catastrophe
1914: Europe Goes to War, summarizes his views on
how the rulers of Europe allowed World War I to start,
then continue with a
loss of over 8.6 mil-
lion soldiers: “It is
more appropriate to
call them deniers, who
preferred to persist
with supremely dan-
gerous policies and
strategies….”
The parallels be-
tween today’s political
decisions regarding cli-
mate change and the
decisions that led Eu-
rope to World War I
are sobering. Those
made in 1914 reflected
political policies pur-
sued for short-term
gains and benefits, in-
stitutional hubris, and
a failure to imagine
and understand the
risks. The result was a disaster in many ways, the rever-
berations from which are still felt a century later.
Once again, nations face a challenge—climate
change—which, if left unmanaged, has the potential
to bring tremendous pain to hundreds of millions of
people and seriously disrupt the existing economic and
political orders of the day. Although we do not know
exactly how climate change will evolve, we do know
that ignoring climate change is tantamount to assuming that there will be no change, an exceedingly unlikely outcome.
So, what to do? Here are three proposals for action
to “buy-down” the risk we have accreted: Increase our
understanding of the near-term future, and focus on
the most dangerous and most probable risks; take
the actions needed to maintain society’s essential infrastructure: water, food, and a viable coastline; and
make the commitments to accelerate our shift to a no-carbon energy future.
We need to have adequate warning of truly extreme
environmental conditions or abrupt, unexpected
changes. This goal cannot be achieved without substantially improving the ability to monitor Earth’s
systems. This will lead to a better understanding of
when, why, and how the details of climate are changing
and improvements of early-warning systems for any
sudden changes.
We must devote greater resources to the management and efficient use
of fresh water, and
its impact on food
and energy production. We must address
another water challenge—the inexorable
rise in sea level, which
threatens coastal communities and vital
economic and security
infrastructure. We
must also meet the
challenge of ocean
acidification, global
warming’s “silent, evil
twin,” on ocean ecosystems, the primary
source of protein for
about 2 billion people.
We must stabilize
the climate system by
solving the root cause
of its changes: unchecked greenhouse gases entering
the atmosphere. We must focus the best minds on this
challenge, develop the needed technologies, and drive
their costs down so that they can be implemented.
Ubiquitous, affordable, non–carbon-based power and
clean water will change the world for the better.
In 2014, we again face uncertainties and choices of
enormous consequence, just as the European powers
faced choices in 1914. The data and projections are laid
out in front of us, as they were for them. Will we repeat the same mistakes they made a century ago? This
is not a political or partisan issue—the atmosphere,
water, and ice neither know nor care how anyone votes
or thinks. Humanity can perform amazing, nearly miraculous feats. But it requires sustained leadership
from all sectors and at all levels. Political leaders must
remember those ghosts from history a century ago—
and this time avert the crisis.
Ghosts from the past
David Titley
is a retired
Rear Admiral
of the United
States Navy
and is director
of the Center
for Solutions
to Weather and
Climate Risk at
The Pennsylvania
State University,
University Park,
PA 16802, USA.
E-mail: dwt12@
psu.edu
– David Titley
10.1126/science.1258594
“...we again face uncertainties and
choices of enormous consequence, just
as...in 1914.”
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